Welcome to Kalamna, the student blog of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at NYU.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?

That's the metaphor on everyone's mind after witnessing Hosni Mubarak stand in front of the television camera trying to convince the Egyptian people that dismissing his cabinet will solve the problem. I know that Mubarak has moved his permanent residence to Sharm el-Sheikh, but is he really that out of touch? Either he is, or he purposely issued a minimal concession in order to buy time and let the army - much more respected amongst the people than the police - quell these unprecedented demonstrations during the days to come.

One thing that comes to my mind while reflecting on the past twelve hours is how poor the US cable news coverage has been in comparison to other outlets. I remember watching some coverage and hearing about how the demonstrations were taking on a more Islamist hue. The evidence? The protesters paused to pray at sunset, and some were shouting "Allahu Akbar". I'm no expert on Egyptian society, but I do know that praying and shouting "Allahu Akbar" does not necessarily make you a card carrying member of the Muslim Brotherhood. By contrast, I found the news and analysis on al Jazeera and al Jazeera English to be much more mature and insightful.

Another thing that struck me while watching some of the cable news coverage was how the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood was repeatedly brought up and often exaggerated. I'm not sure whether it is due to poor analysis or simply the fact that bringing up the Islamist threat makes for good television ratings - probably both. Yet all too often, some one with little background knowledge of the specific context would be led to believe that if Mubarak's regime were to fall, Egypt would suddenly be run like Afghanistan under the Taliban, or like Gaza under Hamas. Apparently Mubarak's decades-old policy of using the Brotherhood as a scarecrow is effective. The reality is that the Muslim Brotherhood is a relatively moderate Islamist movement that renounced violence over 50 years ago. And although it would probably win a substantial number of seats in parliament in a free and fair election, it is not capable of "taking over" the government.

The events from today were truly astonishing, and I suspect that this drama is far, far from over. The Egyptian army, deployed on Friday evening, will surely play a key role. So far, the relationship between the army and the protesters is not clear. The army certainly didn't enforce the curfew, and it didn't do much to stop the protesters from setting fire to NDP headquarters and other buildings. Moreover, the protesters showed a marked respect for the military as they rolled in to Tahrir and Ramses squares; they sought no confrontation whatsoever with those forces. On the other hand, I am not sure that the army will passively watch by in the days ahead if the protests continue to escalate and threaten the survival of the regime. Will the army engage the protesters with violence, or will it side with them and force Mubarak out? Will the defense and interior ministers - two longstanding pillars of Mubarak's regime - be forced to resign as well? Will Mubarak refill his cabinet with NDP lackeys, or will he choose a diverse and comprehensive selection of ministers? Clearly, a lot more questions than answers at this point.

Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?

That's the metaphor on everyone's mind after witnessing Hosni Mubarak stand in front of the television camera trying to convince the Egyptian people that dismissing his cabinet will solve the problem. I know that Mubarak has moved his permanent residence to Sharm el-Sheikh, but is he really that out of touch? Either he is, or he purposefully issued a minimal concession in order to buy time and let the army - much more respected amongst the people than the police - quell these unprecedented demonstrations during the days to come.

One thing that comes to my mind while reflecting on the past twelve hours is how poor the US cable news coverage has been in comparison to other outlets. I remember watching some coverage and hearing about how the demonstrations were taking on a more Islamist hue. The evidence? The protesters paused to pray at sunset, and some were shouting "Allahu Akbar". I'm no expert on Egyptian society, but I do know that praying and shouting "Allahu Akbar" does not necessarily make you a card carrying member of the Muslim Brotherhood. By contrast, I found the news and analysis on al Jazeera and al Jazeera English to be much more mature and insightful.

Another thing that struck me while watching some of the cable news coverage was how the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood was repeatedly brought up and often exaggerated. I'm not sure whether it is due to poor analysis or simply the fact that bringing up the Islamist threat makes for good television ratings - probably both. Yet all too often, some one with little background knowledge of the specific context would be led to believe that if Mubarak's regime were to fall, Egypt would suddenly be run like Afghanistan under the Taliban, or like Gaza under Hamas. Apparently Mubarak's decades-old policy of using the Brotherhood as a scarecrow is effective. The reality is that the Muslim Brotherhood is a relatively moderate Islamist movement that renounced violence over 50 years ago. And although it would probably win a substantial number of seats in parliament in a free and fair election, it is not capable of "taking over" the government.

The events from today were truly astonishing, and I suspect that this drama is far, far from over. The Egyptian army, deployed on Friday evening, will surely play a key role. So far, the relationship between the army and the protesters is not clear. The army certainly didn't enforce the curfew, and it didn't do much to stop the protesters from setting fire to NDP headquarters and other buildings. Moreover, the protesters showed a marked respect for the military as they rolled in to Tahrir and Ramses squares; they seeked no confrontation whatsoever with those forces. On the other hand, I am not sure that the army will passively watch by in the days ahead if the protests continue to escalate and threaten the survival of the regime. Will the army engage the protesters with violence, or will it side with them and force Mubarak to make major concessions? Will the defense and interior ministers - two longstanding pillars of Mubarak's regime - be forced to resign as well? Will Mubarak refill his cabinet with NDP lackeys, or will he choose a diverse and comprehensive selection of ministers? Clearly, a lot more questions than answers at this point.

Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?

That's the metaphor on everyone's mind after witnessing Hosni Mubarak stand in front of the television camera trying to convince the Egyptian people that dismissing his cabinet will solve the problem. I know that Mubarak has moved his permanent residence to Sharm el-Sheikh, but is he really that out of touch? Either he is, or he purposefully issued a minimal concession in order to buy time and let the army - much more respected amongst the people than the police - quell these unprecedented demonstrations during the days to come.

One thing that comes to my mind while reflecting on the past twelve hours is how poor the US cable news coverage has been in comparison to other outlets. I remember watching some coverage and hearing about how the demonstrations were taking on a more Islamist hue. The evidence? The protesters paused to pray at sunset, and some were shouting "Allahu Akbar". I'm no expert on Egyptian society, but I do know that praying and shouting "Allahu Akbar" does not necessarily make you a card carrying member of the Muslim Brotherhood. By contrast, I found the news and analysis on al Jazeera and al Jazeera English to be much more mature and insightful.

Another thing that struck me while watching some of the cable news coverage was how the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood was repeatedly brought up and often exaggerated. I'm not sure whether it is due to poor analysis or simply the fact that bringing up the Islamist threat makes for good television ratings - probably both. Yet all too often, some one with little background knowledge of the specific context would be led to believe that if Mubarak's regime were to fall, Egypt would suddenly be run like Afghanistan under the Taliban, or like Gaza under Hamas. Apparently Mubarak's decades-old policy of using the Brotherhood as a scarecrow is effective. The reality is that the Muslim Brotherhood is a relatively moderate Islamist movement that renounced violence over 50 years ago. And although it would probably win a substantial number of seats in parliament in a free and fair election, it is not capable of "taking over" the government.

The events from today were truly astonishing, and I suspect that this drama is far, far from over. The Egyptian army, deployed on Friday evening, will surely play a key role. So far, the relationship between the army and the protesters is not clear. The army certainly didn't enforce the curfew, and it didn't do much to stop the protesters from setting fire to NDP headquarters and other buildings. Moreover, the protesters showed a marked respect for the military as they rolled in to Tahrir and Ramses squares; they seeked no confrontation whatsoever with those forces. On the other hand, I am not sure that the army will passively watch by in the days ahead if the protests continue to escalate and threaten the survival of the regime. Will the army engage the protesters with violence, or will it side with them and force Mubarak to make major concessions? Will the defense and interior ministers - two longstanding pillars of Mubarak's regime - be forced to resign as well? Will Mubarak refill his cabinet with NDP lackeys, or will he choose a diverse and comprehensive selection of ministers? Clearly, a lot more questions than answers at this point.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Will Egypt Follow Tunisia?

Who said Egyptians are indifferent to politics? That popular canard - always brought forward in order to explain low levels of interest and voter turnout in Egyptian elections - certainly rings hollow this week. On Tuesday, thousands of Egyptians poured onto the streets and squares of Cairo, Suez, Alexandria, Tanta, and several other cities throughout Egypt. Though the Mubarak regime has repeatedly tried to portray the demonstrations as the work of the Muslim Brotherhood - its bogeyman of choice - the demonstrations are clearly a popular expression of frustration with a sour economy, rising food and gas prices, high unemployment, and an authoritarian political system.

The organizers of Tuesday's "Day of Wrath" (Youm al-Ghadab) belong to a previously obscure opposition group called the April 6th movement. The movement's namesake refers to a strike by textile workers that occured on April 6th, 2008, and was crushed by security forces. Using social networking media, young activists formed the movement in response to the strikes and the regime's harsh response. After witnessing the successful Tunisian uprising a few weeks earlier, the group planned these demonstrations for Tuesday, Egypt's Police Day, which happens to be a national holiday.

The fact that these protests are arguably the largest since the bread riots in 1977, and possibly since the 1950s, is highly significant. Of course, Egypt is not immune to the occasional public demonstration. However, there is definitely something different about the demonstrations that have swelled in the last few days. Not only are they the largest in quite some time, but they are nation-wide. Perhaps most significantly, they aren't protests organized by some elite opposition political party, but seem to have grass roots support among Egypt's youth. Indeed, the heterogeneous collection of opposition parties in Egypt lack credibility with many of the protesters, as they are seen as having collaborated with the regime throughout its reign.

The New York Times seems to be linking these widespread demonstrations to Mohammed el-Baradei's umbrella group, the National Association for Change. It seems to me that the organization is certainly playing a role in the demonstrations, but Baradei himself is not playing much of a role. However, according to al-Masry al-Youm, Baradei has declared that he is ready to assume power in a temporary role if the Egyptian people desire so.

For now, the National Association for Change has called for President Mubarak to announce that he will not seek re-election, and that his son Gamal will not run for the office either. If the protests continue to escalate, these demands may escalate as well.

A lot of attention has focused on whether the Egyptian protesters will follow their Tunisian counterparts. I think it is difficult to make clear cut analogies here. There's no question that what happened in Tunisia is inspiring many protesters. But there are some crucial differences. First, the Tunisian military played a crucial role in facilitating the revolution by not getting involved. I don't see the Egyptian military as being so averse to intervening. Second, the NDP (the ruling party in Egypt) is powerful and entrenched in so many layers of society. There are a lot of people with a vested interest in the status quo, and I'm not sure a few tens of thousands of protesters can change that. Then again, if the Egyptian stock market continues along this path, who knows what can happen? (How could I not link to this article, given that it is co-written by the Kevorkian's own Liam Stack - bravo Liam!)

It's no use trying to predict how this will end up. At this point, the situation is pregnant with a multiplicity of possibilities. The only thing that is clear is that the entire region seems to be in flux. A successful uprising in Tunisia, unprecedented protests in Egypt, Algeria, and now Yemen. Meanwhile, a part of Sudan just seceded, Hezbollah just nominated the new prime minister in Lebanon, and al-Jazeera might have just put the final nail in the coffin of the Palestinian Authority by its release of embarrassing (but frankly not surprising) documents from its negotiations with Israel. 2011 already looks like it will be quite an eventful year.

PS - for those who read Arabic, check out this article in Egypt's semi-official newspaper Al-Ahram for a good laugh.

Will Egypt Follow Tunisia?

Who said Egyptians are indifferent to politics? That popular canard - always brought forward in order to explain low levels of interest and voter turnout in Egyptian elections - certainly sounds hollow this week. On Tuesday, thousands of Egyptians poured onto the streets and squares of Cairo, Suez, Alexandria, Tanta, and several other cities throughout Egypt. Though the Mubarak regime has initially tried to portray the demonstrations as the work of the Muslim Brotherhood - its public enemy number one - the demonstrations are clearly a popular expression of frustration with a sour economy, rising food and gas prices, high unemployment, and an authoritarian political system.

The organizers of Tuesday's "Day of Wrath" (Youm al-Ghadab) belong to a previously obscure opposition group called the April 6th movement. The movement's namesake refers to a strike by textile workers that occured on April 6th, 2008, and was crushed by security forces. Using social networking media, young activists formed the movement in response to the strikes and the regime's harsh response. After witnessing the successful Tunisian uprising a few weeks earlier, the group planned these demonstrations for Tuesday, Egypt's Police Day, which happens to be a national holiday.

The fact that these protests are arguably the largest since the bread riots in 1977, and possibly since the 1950s, is highly significant. Of course, Egypt is not immune to the occasional public demonstration. However, there is definitely something different about the demonstrations that have swelled in the last few days. Not only are they the largest in quite some time, but they are nation-wide. Perhaps most significantly, they aren't protests organized by some elite opposition political party, but seem to have grass roots support among Egypt's youth. Indeed, the heterogeneous collection of opposition parties in Egypt lack credibility with many of the protesters, as they are seen as having collaborated with the regime throughout its reign.

The New York Times seems to be linking these widespread demonstrations to Mohammed el-Baradei's umbrella group, the National Association for Change. It seems to me that the organization is certainly playing a role in the demonstrations, but Baradei himself is not playing much of a role. However, according to al-Masry al-Youm, Baradei has declared that he is ready to assume power in a temporary role if the Egyptian people desire so.

For now, the National Association for Change has called for President Mubarak to announce that he will not seek re-election, and that his son Gamal will not run for the office either. If the protests continue to escalate, these demands may escalate as well.

It's no use trying to predict how this will end up. At this point, the situation is pregnant with a multiplicity of possibilities. The only thing that is clear is that the entire region seems to be in flux. A successful uprising in Tunisia, unprecedented protests in Egypt, Algeria, and now Yemen. Meanwhile, a part of Sudan just seceded, Hezbollah just nominated the new prime minister in Lebanon, and al-Jazeera might have just put the final nail in the coffin of the Palestinian Authority by its release of embarrassing (but frankly not surprising) documents from its negotiations with Israel. 2011 already looks like it will be quite an eventful year.

PS - for those who read Arabic, check out this article in Egypt's semi-official newspaper Al-Ahram for a good laugh.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

That Tunisian Uprising

Throughout the past two weeks, we have witnessed something that hasn't occured in the Middle East since 1979: a popular uprising that forced the collapse of an authoritarian regime. After 23 years of iron-clad rule, Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and his entourage fled the capital and took refuge in Saudi Arabia. This is the first time an event like this has transpired in an Arab country in quite some time.

Already, the self-immolating Tunisian vegetable vendor that sparked the demonstrations in Tunisia seems to have inspired others across North Africa. Similar self-immolations have occured in Algeria and Mauritania. In Egypt, a string of self-immolations in recent days have raised eyebrows about the possibility of a Tunisian-style uprising in that country. It may be too early to tell if the demonstrations in Tunisia will give rise to similar uprisings in other Arab countries plagued with similar (and worse) problems of high food prices, few jobs, and an authoritarian political environment. Nevertheless, these cases of people literally setting themselves on fire in order to express their frustration and despair speak volumes.

If the events in Tunisia have transnational implications (and in light of the role played by al-Jazeera and social media, how could they not?), the obvious question is what sort of impact they will have on Egypt. Egypt will hold a presidential election in September, and by all indications, the aging Hosni Mubarak is expected to seek another six year term. Sensing the inevitable uncertainty associated with such a move, the regime has signicantly clamped down on dissent in the last few months. Recent parliamentary elections were among the most blatantly rigged yet, as the Egyptian government appears to not be taking any chances this time.

So in that context, how do people feel about the chances of a Tunisian-style uprising in Egypt? For his part, opposition leader Mohammed el-Baradei is not advocating for that type of change. In an interview with The Guardian, el-Baradei explicitly said that he supports change from within the existing system over revolutionary change from the streets. He's taken some heat from grass-roots activists for this stance, as they have leveled the charge that he is not "a man of the street." But so what, we knew that already. After all, Baradei's position is not surprising. Egypt has a lot of societal problems lurking beneath the chimera of stability apparent on the surface, so a chaotic popular uprising could precipitate some messy scenarios. This debate about change from within as opposed to revolutionary change is nothing new, although it is sure to be a debate likely to intensify in the months ahead. The Guardian article also mentions that massive anti-government demonstrations are planned for next week in Cairo and Alexandria, so stay tuned.